Forecasting Research Institute
Forecasting Research Institute (FRI) advances the science of forecasting to enhance decision-making on critical issues. Their work focuses on developing and refining forecasting methods, particularly for complex, long-run topics and existential risks. FRI collaborates with policymakers and nonprofits, implementing practical forecasting tools through large-scale experiments. Key research areas include creating high-quality forecasting questions, innovating methods for resolving complex questions, testing forecasting techniques across domains, and applying these tools to improve organizational decision-making. They have projects like the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT), adversarial collaborations on AI risk, AI Conditional Trees, Expert Forecasts of Nuclear Risk, and ForecastBench, a benchmark for LLM forecasting capabilities. Their team comprises experts in economics, data science, behavioral science, and operations, with notable figures like Philip Tetlock leading research. FRI's work is supported by philanthropic foundations.
Forecasting Research Institute
Forecasting Research Institute (FRI) advances the science of forecasting to enhance decision-making on critical issues. Their work focuses on developing and refining forecasting methods, particularly for complex, long-run topics and existential risks. FRI collaborates with policymakers and nonprofits, implementing practical forecasting tools through large-scale experiments. Key research areas include creating high-quality forecasting questions, innovating methods for resolving complex questions, testing forecasting techniques across domains, and applying these tools to improve organizational decision-making. They have projects like the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT), adversarial collaborations on AI risk, AI Conditional Trees, Expert Forecasts of Nuclear Risk, and ForecastBench, a benchmark for LLM forecasting capabilities. Their team comprises experts in economics, data science, behavioral science, and operations, with notable figures like Philip Tetlock leading research. FRI's work is supported by philanthropic foundations.